Marquee Views: Uneven Recovery
Investors' risk sentiment bounced back to pre-war levels, as markets looked past the Middle East risks. Core convictions, including Long Developed Market Equities, Short Dollar, Bearish Oil, were back in focus for investors, together with a renewed optimism on the AI trade. But structural energy concerns continue to weigh on Europe and drive uncertainty around the Fed's path, while volatile peace headlines keep investor optimism on Strait of Hormuz (SOH) reopening at bay.
Read the full analysis on Marquee.
1/ Back to Core Convictions: Long DM equities conviction and SPX bullishness are at four-month highs. The AI trade is clearly in the driver's seat -- looking back at our two-year dataset, a record number of investors are long Mag 7 stocks outside of the November 2025 peak.
Source: Marquee MarketView, as of 6 May 2026.
2/ Oil Pressures on SOH Delays: Despite the bullish sentiment, geopolitics is the biggest risk that investors are watching in May. As headline roulette around the Strait of Hormuz persists, many don't expect the flows to normalize until the second half of the year. Oil views are under pressure as a result -- less than a quarter of respondents expect crude below $80 by the end of the year.
Source: Marquee MarketView, as of 6 May 2026.
3/ Muddy Road: The combination of a resilient labor market and upside inflation pressures has allowed the Fed to stay on hold for longer. But a change in Fed guard as early as next month, as well as debates around AI's deflationary impacts, raise more questions around the path ahead for front end rates. Our survey results reflect this uncertainty, with an almost even split between those expecting the Fed to stay on hold, vs those expecting a cut this year.
Source: Marquee MarketView, as of 6 May 2026.
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